Ohio Senate race is the race where a former senator is trying to return, and where the final polls suggest the return is plausible. Democrat Sherrod Brown leads Republican Senator Jon Husted by 49 percent to 44 percent in the final New York Times and Siena survey. A YouGov survey from October 26 to 29 found a narrower lead, 50 percent to 48 percent, still Democratic, but by two points rather than five. As in Kansas and Texas, the direction is consistent across pollsters and the margin is not, which means Ohio should be described as leaning Democratic, not as decided.
Brown’s candidacy carries history that other challengers do not. He previously served in the Senate, lost his seat, and is now seeking to regain it in a state that has trended Republican in recent cycles. That history gives him name recognition and a record to defend, and gives Husted, the incumbent, a target to attack. The race therefore tests whether a familiar Democrat can win in a state where Democrats have struggled recently, when the national environment, with Democrats leading the generic ballot by 51.5 percent to 43.1 percent, favours his party.
Cost of living is again the central issue. Across the seven battleground states, Democrats hold a nine point advantage on the issue, and only 38 percent of likely voters approve of President Donald Trump’s job performance. In Ohio, where manufacturing, agriculture and energy costs shape household budgets, that advantage has particular force. Early voting in Ohio reached nearly 1.5 million by Friday, already more than in past governor elections, suggesting that Ohio voters, like voters nationally, are engaged early and in large numbers.
Ohio in the Senate arithmetic
Ohio fits into the Senate arithmetic as one of five Republican held states where final polls show Democrats ahead, alongside Texas, Kansas, Maine and Alaska, with Iowa tied and Michigan, the Democratic held seat, showing a wider lead. Democrats need a net gain of four seats for a majority. If Ohio, Texas and Kansas all break Democratic, the majority question narrows dramatically. If Ohio holds for Republicans while other states break Democratic, the path remains open but tighter. Ohio is therefore not the most dramatic race in the set, but it is one of the most consequential for the count.
The Ohio Senate battleground polls also show the limits of polling in a state with a large unaffiliated and late deciding population. Surveys covered 717 voters in Ohio, with a margin of error that makes a five point lead meaningful but not safe, and a two point lead effectively tied. Late deciders, Election Day turnout and the ground operation in Ohio cities and suburbs will add the votes that polls can only estimate.
Tuesday in Ohio
Tuesday in Ohio will answer whether a former senator can return in a Republican leaning state during a Democratic leaning year. A Brown win would confirm the national polling lead and give Democrats a key seat toward a majority. A Husted win would show that Ohio Republican trend outweighs the national mood, and would force Democrats to find their fourth gain elsewhere. Either outcome will be close enough that the count, not the polls, will be the story on Tuesday night in Ohio.
