The Coalition of the Willing, a group of about 35 countries backing Ukraine, is due to meet in Berlin as Europe seeks a seat at the table in the negotiations over its own security. The meeting comes as American mediated talks between Russia and Ukraine open in Abu Dhabi, and European governments have insisted on being involved, even though they are unlikely to be at the table there. The meeting in Berlin is the response to that exclusion, and the coalition wants a voice in whatever the Abu Dhabi talks produce.
Why it matters
The worry in Europe is specific. President Donald Trump has floated a deal with Moscow on European security ahead of the talks, and Europe and Ukraine fear the United States will force a deal on Kyiv that would amount to a de facto capitulation. A negotiation about European security without Europeans is a contradiction, and the Berlin meeting is the response to it.
The Europeans are not going to Abu Dhabi empty handed. Representatives from Britain, France, Germany and Italy, as well as Nato and EU officials, will hold separate talks with Kyiv representatives in Abu Dhabi, and Denmark has announced a new aid package worth about 643 million euros. The message is that Europe will be present, whether it is invited to the main table or not.
What happens next
The stakes are the shape of the continent after the war. A deal that trades Ukrainian territory for a ceasefire would redraw the map of Europe, and a security guarantee that is not credible would invite the next war. The Coalition of the Willing exists because its members believe the guarantee must be theirs to give, not Washington alone.
What happens next will be decided in Abu Dhabi, where the talks run through Wednesday, and in Berlin, where the coalition meets around the same time. For Europe, the test is whether it can turn its insistence into influence. For Ukraine, the test is whether two tables are better than one, and whether the Berlin meeting can turn European insistence into influence.
